LME Copper Holds Near $14,259 a Tonne as Comex Stocks and Escondida Talks Keep Spreads Tight
Three-month LME copper closed at $14,258.50 a tonne, within 4% of the September record, as Comex warehouses hold 69% of exchange-tracked stocks, half of LME inventories are earmarked for delivery and BHP's Escondida contract talks stay unresolved.
Copper is consolidating just below record territory rather than breaking down. The LME three-month contract last closed at $14,258.50 a tonne, up 0.11% on the session and still within roughly 4% of the all-time high of $14,875 set on 10 September. Across the rest of the complex on 2 October, LME three-month aluminium closed at $3,100.50, zinc at $3,710.50, nickel at $15,626 and lead at $1,851.50, with the base metals complex finishing the week mostly lower on a firmer dollar and a bond-market rout that drove copper to a 2.28% weekly decline.
The regional arbitrage remains the dominant physical story. Comex copper hit a record $6.83 a pound, equivalent to about $15,057 a tonne, in late September before retreating on a Reuters report that the White House had yet to decide on copper import tariffs. After months of heavy inflows, Comex warehouses now hold 69% of the roughly 1 million tonnes of copper tracked by global exchanges, which has left availability outside the United States extremely tight. Of the 252,500 tonnes sitting in LME-registered warehouses, about half has been earmarked for delivery, and the cash-to-three-month spread swung to a premium of $65 a tonne from a discount of $86 on 14 September.
Supply risk is reinforcing that tightness. Traders are waiting on contract negotiations at BHP's Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, after supervisors rejected the company's final offer and authorised strike action, triggering mandatory government mediation. Chilean output weakness compounds the picture, with August production down 12.8% year-on-year, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024. LME copper is still up about 18% year-to-date on these combined factors.
Ferrous complex signals are softer. The most-traded Dalian iron ore contract closed at 702.5 yuan a tonne on 30 September, up 0.5% ahead of the National Day holiday shutdown, with China's factory PMI rising to 50.1 in September. Steel margins remain thin, and the restart of restocking has stalled, leaving iron ore and steel rebar drifting while the copper complex holds its geopolitical and physical premium.