Record US Soybean Crop Meets Tighter Stocks as USDA Raises Corn, Soy and Wheat Farm Prices

The US corn balance sheet tightened for a second consecutive month. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board put the 2026/27 corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from August, and cut production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion. Ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion, above the average trade guess, and the season-average farm price was raised 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel. The cut still leaves the second-largest crop on record, and Grain Farmers of Ontario notes that about 5% of the US corn crop was already harvested by September 6, with USDA rating corn 56% good-to-excellent and soybeans 58%, so September and October weather can still move the final number.

Soybeans moved the other way on production but not on stocks. Yield was nudged up to 52.8 bushels per acre from 52.7, pushing output to a record 4.535 billion bushels. Even so, ending stocks were cut to 310 million bushels from 320 million because USDA raised its export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, and the season-average price was lifted 60 cents to $12.00. The bullish export assumption rests heavily on Chinese state buying under this year's bilateral agreement, which makes Beijing's pace as important to the balance sheet as the weather was.

Wheat was the quietest of the three: ending stocks held at 717 million bushels and the farm price was raised 20 cents to $6.40. Globally, USDA cut world corn ending stocks by 2.56 million tonnes to 272.10 million, lowered world soybean stocks by 0.19 million to 124.02 million, and raised world wheat stocks by 3.04 million tonnes to 276.29 million on bigger Australian and Canadian crops. Brazil's corn crop was left at 141 million tonnes for 2025/26.

Price action around the release was muted relative to the size of the yield cut, because the numbers landed slightly above the average trade guess. On September 11 settlement basis, December 2026 corn was around $5.30 a bushel, November 2026 soybeans around $12.96 and December 2026 wheat around $7.25, with nearby crude at $100.05 a barrel and US ethanol at $2.26 a gallon - both of which keep a floor under corn demand through the fuel channel. With harvest accelerating, the next real test is whether Chinese soybean purchases keep pace with the 1.69 billion bushel export assumption that now underpins the tightest soybean stocks number in the report.