Server DRAM Revenue Jumps 53% as TrendForce Sees Contract Prices Rising Through 2027
TrendForce put second-quarter server DRAM revenue at $75.58 billion, up 53% sequentially, with average contract prices 53-58% higher and DDR5 above 90% of shipments. Supplier inventories are at record lows and the shortage is now expected to run through 2027.
Second-quarter 2026 server DRAM revenue surged 53% sequentially to $75.58 billion, according to TrendForce, with average contract prices up 53-58% and DDR5 accounting for more than 90% of shipments. Demand was concentrated in high-capacity RDIMMs as cloud service providers expanded AI server deployments, while supplier inventories fell to historic lows. Capacity reallocated toward HBM is restricting RDIMM bit growth, which TrendForce expects to extend both the supply deficit and the price increases through 2027.
The pace of increase is decelerating even as the direction stays up. Published TrendForce guidance puts third-quarter conventional DRAM contract price growth at 13-18% quarter on quarter, slowing to 3-8% in the fourth quarter, with server DRAM also seen up 13-18% in Q3. NAND Flash is guided to rise 10-15% in the third quarter and 0-5% in the fourth. Third-quarter contracts were finalised on strong server and AI demand while the consumer segment reached a pricing compromise, leaving the spot market flat on weak end-user demand.
Spot indicators show the same split. TrendForce's DRAM spot board had DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 averaging $54.333 with no change at the 11 September update, while DDR4 16Gb 3200 fell 0.83% to $89.75 and DDR4 8Gb 3200 eased 0.14% to $45.214. NAND wafer spot is softer: 512Gb TLC averaged $20.146, down 2.71% on the week at the 7 September update, with high prime-wafer prices squeezing module-maker margins and buyers shifting to downgraded material for secondary markets.
Supply risk is now as much operational as cyclical. A Taiwanese union representing Micron workers has kept strike preparations alive unless the company agrees a permanent profit-sharing scheme, with mediation set for 18 and 21 September, and the union says it represents more than 80% of Micron's roughly 15,000 Taiwan employees - Taiwan being Micron's largest DRAM and HBM base. TrendForce also flags that HBM contract negotiations for 2027 are pointing to steeper prices, and that emerging High Bandwidth Flash is positioning itself between HBM and SSDs, though cost and ecosystem hurdles limit near-term adoption.