US Urea Jumps 9.1% in a Week to $796 as Ammonia Climbs 15.9% on European Gas Costs
US urea averaged $796.25 a short ton, up $66.25 or 9.1% on the week, while anhydrous ammonia rose 15.9% to $945 and UAN32 gained 15.7%, even as NOLA barge values slipped on news of a fourth Chinese export quota and a 1.7-million-tonne Indian tender due 7 October.
The US nitrogen complex repriced sharply higher over the past week. Urea (46-0-0) averaged $796.25 a short ton, up $66.25 or 9.1% on the week, while anhydrous ammonia jumped $129.50 to $945.00, a 15.9% gain, and UAN32 rose $87.57 to $645.00, up 15.7%. UAN28 was the exception, falling $66.66 to $533.34, a 11.1% weekly decline. Phosphate products softened, with DAP down $16.27 to $945.56 and MAP down $38.23 to $978.00, while potash bucked the trend at $571.35, up $36.15 or 6.8%, and ammonium sulphate eased $7.05 to $573.50.
The driver on the cost side is European gas. ADM Agriculture reports TTF retreating towards EUR 72 per megawatt-hour but still far above levels of two months earlier following September's crude spike, and says major producer Agrofert is running its European ammonia units at just 80% capacity because of feedstock costs, with a continuous risk of gas-driven plant shutdowns keeping supply tight. European Union underground gas storage stood at roughly 71.2% full in late September, about 11 percentage points below the 82.6% of a year earlier and the lowest level for that point in the season since records began in 2011, so the nitrogen complex stays highly sensitive to gas volatility into winter.
Trade flows are pulling the other way. The US NOLA FOB barge urea price fell $16 a short ton to $450-455 after news that China had approved a fourth batch of export allocations estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tonnes, with at least 1 million tonnes of Chinese urea expected to be offered into the Indian tender closing on 7 October for 1.7 million tonnes. Baltic Sea spot FOB rose $5 to $430-440 a tonne and Egyptian spot FOB gained $17 to $535, and ADM cautioned that the near-term trajectory depends heavily on how much Chinese volume actually moves and on the tender outcome. Potash remains the weak link, with Brazilian MOP prices falling for a fourth consecutive week on persistently weak demand as suppliers push inventory ahead of the 2027-28 season.
On the grain side, weather and harvest progress remain the swing factors for application demand. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey's late-September updates tracked sorghum harvest progress and crop condition and flagged heavy rains across parts of the western corn and soybean belts, a pattern that slows field work and can shift nitrogen topdressing and fall application windows. With Chinese export quotas adding supply and Southern Hemisphere demand seasonally firm, fertiliser buyers face a market where availability, particularly for phosphates, may matter more than price over the coming months.