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USDA Sets Record $13.8bn ARC and PLC Payments as Corn Stocks and Nitrogen Costs Diverge

The USDA said Farm Service Agency Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programmes will generate roughly $13.8bn in gross payments for the 2025 crop year, a record for the revenue and price safety net. The outlay coincides with heavy US corn stocks, softer nitrogen prices and Black Sea shipping risk that continues to underpin wheat.

Chile Copper Output Risk Put at 5.2% as Strikes, Storms and Geology Hit Top Mines

A new Production-at-Risk Index from GEM Mining Consulting puts an average 5.2% of output at Chile's 14 largest copper mines at risk, with El Teniente at 9%, Los Pelambres at 8% and Escondida at 7.5%. The assessment lands as more than 700 workers strike at Antofagasta's Centinela and Chilean production runs 9.3% below 2025 levels through July.

NVIDIA NVHBM Pushes HBM Base Dies to External Foundries as 2027 Prices Seen Doubling

NVIDIA's custom NVHBM architecture moves the memory controller onto the HBM base die, prompting Micron and Samsung to source base dies from external foundries including TSMC rather than building them in-house. The shift lands as suppliers push 2027 HBM prices sharply higher: Samsung is reportedly seeking more than double current levels for HBM4, while TrendForce sees industry average HBM ASP up 121% next year.

Tanker Order Wave Pushes VLCC Newbuilding Prices to $138m as Yards Fill 2029 Slots

Shipbuilding activity accelerated again this week with 83 fresh newbuilding orders spanning tankers, container ships, bulk carriers, LNG carriers and car carriers, and Chinese yards took a substantial share. New VLCC prices have climbed 8.4% this year to $138m while five-year-old VLCCs are up 70% to $196.3m, and HD Hyundai agreed to buy Goltens Worldwide for $247.5m to expand its ship repair footprint.

Crude Holds Weekly Gain as Hormuz Attacks, Sanctions and Hurricane Isaias Tighten Supply

Brent held above $100 a barrel on Friday even as prices eased on signs Washington will not strike Iran before the November midterms, after a wave of tanker attacks cut Strait of Hormuz traffic to a two-month low. WTI stayed near $91 as US Gulf producers shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day ahead of Hurricane Isaias, while fresh US sanctions targeted 17 vessels moving Iranian crude.