Industrial-Grade Lithium Carbonate Slides 8.5% as China Futures Break Below CNY 110,000

Chinese lithium carbonate extended its slide this week, with SMM's industrial-grade assessment at USD 16,676.35 a tonne on 12 October, down USD 1,004.4 on the day, and battery-grade at USD 17,197.96, down USD 1,003.47. On the domestic market tracked by Market Pulse Scope, industrial-grade lithium carbonate is quoted at CNY 108,000 a tonne, a fall of 8.47% over seven days. The futures market led the move: the most-active Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract touched its weakest since 17 December 2025 at CNY 104,680 a tonne on 12 October - about USD 15,640 - and ended daytime trade down 11.8% at CNY 104,740, its steepest daily fall since March, before sliding a further 4% intraday on 13 October to roughly CNY 103,600-104,080.

Spot prices followed. Mysteel data showed that by the afternoon of 12 October quality lithium carbonate was quoted at CNY 110,500-115,000 a tonne, battery-grade at CNY 108,500-115,000 and industrial-grade at CNY 106,500-113,000, each down CNY 8,500 on the day. From the May high above CNY 200,000 a tonne, the contract has roughly halved in under six months, and it is down more than 30% in a month and a half. The immediate trigger was a mix of supply and demand disappointments: Jiangte Motor disclosed on 12 October that the safety-facilities design for its 3 million tonne a year Xikeng lithium mine had passed review, and Yichun published a further environmental-impact acceptance notice for the Jianxiawo mine on 8 October, both reinforcing expectations of additional lepidolite supply.

Demand did not offset it. September new-energy passenger-vehicle retail sales fell 16.7% year on year, lithium battery output schedules grew only about 4% month on month in October, and reports that major cell makers would cut production schedules weighed on sentiment even though they were unconfirmed. Overseas, the European Union is reported to be planning to halve Chinese hybrid-vehicle imports, and Beijing will place export controls on lithium batteries, LFP cathode material and artificial graphite anodes from 8 November. SMM put September Chinese lithium carbonate output at 115,400 tonnes, up 4% month on month and 32% year on year, while Goldman Sachs now sees the global lithium market moving from a 404,000 tonne deficit in 2026 to a 444,000 tonne surplus in 2028, forecasting Chinese spot averages near CNY 100,000 a tonne in 2027 and CNY 84,000 in 2028.