TSMC 3nm Set To Overtake 5nm On Revenue As AI Demand Lifts Foundry Utilisation

TSMC's 3nm family is ramping faster than planned as AI and high-performance computing orders accelerate, with analysts cited by Taiwanese media expecting the node to pass 5nm in revenue contribution in the second half of this year and quarterly output value to exceed NT$400 billion in the third quarter, equal to more than 30 percent of total revenue. In the second quarter, 5nm accounted for 33 percent of sales while 3nm rose to 30 percent from 25 percent in the first quarter.

Capacity is being added to keep up. Monthly 3nm wafer starts are expected to rise to about 180,000 in early fourth quarter from roughly 150,000 in the first half, and combined 2nm and 3nm capacity is projected to exceed 400,000 wafers a month by 2028. New 3nm capacity is planned at the Tainan Science Park with mass production in the first half of 2027, at the second Arizona fab in the second half of 2027, and at the second Japan fab in 2028.

The pull is spreading beyond leading-edge logic. TrendForce reported that second-quarter revenue among the top ten foundries reached a record as AI-related demand lifted both advanced and mature nodes and consumer restocking continued. The top five rankings were unchanged, while Vanguard returned to eighth place on stronger power-management and AI peripheral IC demand plus quarterly foundry price increases, and Nexchip slipped to ninth.

The near-term constraint is no longer just wafer starts. Unimicron's chairman described the substrate market as being at a critical juncture, with demand for larger bodies, higher layer counts and tighter thermal and dielectric specifications raising technical barriers, while key tools and materials such as ABF and glass-through-via technologies remain concentrated among small and mid-sized Japanese suppliers.