US Grain Export Sales Miss Again as Rain Slows Harvest and Dollar Strengthens
Weekly US export sales came in at or below the bottom of trade expectations across corn, soybeans and wheat, with soybean bookings the lowest in 12 weeks. Harvest rain in the western Corn Belt and a dollar at its strongest since late July added to the pressure.
USDA export sales for the week ended September 17 disappointed across the complex. Corn booked 838,300 tonnes, near the bottom of the 0.8-1.4 million tonne range analysts expected; soybeans managed 582,432 tonnes against expectations of 1.5-2.0 million tonnes, the weakest weekly total in 12 weeks; and wheat came in at 267,553 tonnes versus a 350,000-600,000 tonne range, the fourth-lowest weekly print of the marketing year and 50.44% below the same week last year.
Futures closed mostly lower on September 24. December corn fell 1.5 cents to $5.2750 a bushel, November soybeans slipped half a cent to $13.1750, December Chicago SRW wheat lost 1.5 cents to $7.07 and December Kansas City HRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents to $7.67. A rising US Treasury yield complex pushed the dollar index to its highest level since late July, a headwind for dollar-denominated commodity exports, while renewed diplomacy around the Black Sea removed risk premium from wheat.
The demand gap is structural for corn. Year-to-date US corn commitments are running 29% below last year against a USDA forecast for only a 4% decline, and US Gulf FOB offers sit above Argentine values and roughly $0.10-$0.20 above Brazilian offers into early 2027, eroding competitiveness. Soybeans look better on a cumulative basis, with year-to-date commitments 94% above last year and Chinese purchases estimated near 14 million tonnes, plus a fresh 120,000 tonne sale reported to China for 2026/27.
Weather is the main counterweight. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey highlighted heavy rain across the western corn and soybean belts in the week to September 22, with forecasts of 1-2 inches across the Central Plains and parts of Iowa and Missouri into early the following week. Slower harvest has tightened nearby soybean availability and pushed the October 2026 soymeal premium over December 2026 to nearly $5 per ton, a new high, even as Sinograin prepares to auction another 514,000 tonnes of state soybean reserves.