USDA Trims US Corn Yield and Ending Stocks, Raises Corn and Soybean Price Outlook

USDA's September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released 11 September, cut the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre and trimmed harvested area fractionally to 88.5 million acres, taking production down 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion. Total US corn use was lowered 150 million bushels to 16.2 billion, with feed and residual use down to 6 billion, but the supply cut was larger than the demand cut, leaving ending stocks 86 million bushels lower at 1.567 billion. That was still above the average trade guess of roughly 1.53 billion bushels, so the report largely validated expectations rather than delivering a fresh shock. This was the first September report to incorporate USDA's objective yield survey, in which field agents count and measure ears directly rather than relying on farmer surveys.

Soybeans moved the other way. Production was raised 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion on a yield of 52.8 bushels per acre and slightly higher harvested area, beating the average trade estimate by more than 30 million bushels. Exports were lifted 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion on stronger demand, much of it linked to Chinese purchasing, which pulled ending stocks down to 310 million bushels from 320 million. Wheat was left broadly unchanged in aggregate, with US ending stocks at 717 million bushels. USDA raised its season-average farm prices to $4.80 a bushel for corn, up 30 cents; $12.00 for soybeans, up 60 cents; and $6.40 for wheat, up 20 cents. Globally, corn ending stocks fell 2.56 million tonnes to 272.10 million while world wheat stocks rose 3.04 million tonnes to 276.29 million on bigger Australian, Canadian and Ukrainian crops, with Black Sea logistics still disrupted.

Futures took the report mildly bearishly. December corn had gained 18 cents to $5.43 ahead of the release before falling 13 cents within the hour, November soybeans slipped to $13.03 from $13.14, and wheat lost 15 to 25 cents a bushel as global stocks beat expectations. Roughly 5% of the US corn crop had been harvested by the report date against a five-year average of 3%. Private estimates had been lower: Pro Farmer's late-August crop tour put the national yield nearer 173 bushels per acre. The larger question for soybeans is whether Chinese buying continues under the bilateral arrangement, with Beijing reported to account for about two-thirds of new-crop export sales booked so far.

On the input side, Chinese nitrogen costs jumped in early September as thermal coal rallied. Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal was quoted around 996 yuan a tonne on 8 September, up more than 90 yuan in a week, lifting water-slurry urea production costs by roughly 147 yuan a tonne and pushing domestic urea to about 1,822 yuan a tonne by 9 September, 6.3% above the start of the month, with daily output down to about 193,200 tonnes as plants in Henan, Shandong, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia underwent maintenance. Internationally, Middle East granular urea FOB had recovered to $425-435 a tonne by 7 September after peaking above $850 in April, and the World Bank has warned that 2026 average urea could exceed the 2022 average of about $700 a tonne if supply risks persist. The FAO put its August cereal price index at 116.3 points, up 2.2% on the month and the highest since May 2024.