AI Infrastructure Demand Tightens DRAM Supply as PC and Mobile Brands Cut Output
TrendForce's September DRAM bulletin says AI infrastructure demand is crowding out consumer memory, pushing contract prices higher and forcing PC and smartphone makers to cut production and trial alternative memory sources.
TrendForce's DRAM Market Bulletin of September 16 says AI infrastructure demand is tightening overall DRAM supply while PC and mobile brands cut output and adopt alternative memory sources under mounting cost pressure. Long-term agreement lock-ins are restricting smaller buyers as prices climb. On the demand side, rising end-market retail prices are suppressing consumer spending and leading to a sharp drop in notebook shipments. Manufacturers retain bargaining power, with rigid baseline demand continuing to support resilient prices even as buyers resist steeper hikes.
Contract and spot pricing both remain firm. TrendForce data show August PC DRAM contract prices rising double digits, with DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM up 13.04% on average to $130.00 and DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM up 16.74% to $265.00. DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM gained 16.81% to $139.00 while DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) rose 14.29% to $48.00. In the spot market DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 averaged $56.933 as of September 21, up 1.67% on the session, and DDR5 RDIMM 32GB module spot prices were up 7.90% on the week to $2,050.00.
NAND is splitting along demand lines. TrendForce's 2027 outlook sees enterprise SSDs surging on AI demand while consumer NAND weakens under new capacity and specification downgrades. North American cloud service providers are scaling QLC SSDs, with fourth-quarter 2026 orders setting new highs. Agentic AI and KV cache offload architectures are expanding enterprise SSD demand, while YMTC capacity expansion and cost-downs open the door for Chinese vendors in consumer segments. NAND wafer spot prices were softer, with 512Gb TLC at $20.083 as of September 14, down 0.31% on the session.
The supply response is structurally constrained. New DRAM wafer capacity is being directed largely to HBM, limiting expansion available to conventional DRAM and NAND. TrendForce notes OEMs are aggressively building inventory while adopting component downgrades to manage cost as future supply is expected to shrink significantly. Quarterly PC DRAM contract gains have narrowed rather than reversed, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate with vendors pushing long-term agreements for market visibility.