Copper Eases to $14,289 as Strike Votes Spread Across Escondida, Centinela and Padcal
LME base metals closed lower across the board on October 1, with three-month copper at $14,289 a tonne, as a stronger dollar and high energy costs weighed on prices even as unions at the Escondida, Centinela and Padcal copper mines all moved toward strike action within a single week.
London Metal Exchange three-month copper settled at $14,289 a tonne on October 1, down $116 or 0.81% on the session. Aluminium fell 1.61% to $3,119, nickel dropped 1.95% to $15,610, zinc lost 2.28% to $3,728.50, lead eased 0.61% to $1,860 and tin was almost flat at $54,250. The common driver was a firmer US dollar on hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, compounded by energy costs after Brent briefly traded back through $100 a barrel.
Supply risk is building underneath the macro pressure. Supervisors at BHP's Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, rejected the company's final collective contract offer on September 30, with the 1,020-member union saying 95% of participating members voted for strike action. Under Chilean law the parties now enter a mandatory five-day government-led mediation that can be extended by a further five days before a legal stoppage can begin. Escondida produced 1.26 million tonnes of copper on a 100% basis in BHP's 2026 financial year and is guided to 1.00-1.10 million tonnes for fiscal 2027.
Two other operations moved in the same window. At Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela, the Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions, with 708 members combined, voted 98.73% in favour of a strike on September 28, seeking equal benefits across union affiliations; Centinela produced 240,400 tonnes in 2025 but its first-half 2026 copper-in-concentrate output fell 13% to 69,700 tonnes on grades that were 14% lower. In the Philippines, the Philex National Mines and Allied Workers Union submitted strike vote results to the labour department's mediation board on October 1.
The coincidence of three labour disputes inside four days matters because the copper market has little inventory cushion to absorb a disruption. Analysts have pointed to a widening deficit outlook if outages persist, with LME stocks already low relative to recent history and a large share of exchange metal pulled into US warehouses on tariff arbitrage. That leaves prices sensitive to any confirmation that mediation at Escondida or Centinela has failed.