Harvest Pressure Meets Higher Fertilizer Bills as US Crops Come In
US corn and soybean harvests are running ahead of their five-year averages while retail fertilizer prices rose for a sixth week, leaving growers to absorb higher nitrogen and phosphate costs just as new-crop supplies press on board prices.
The US harvest is arriving faster than normal. USDA's weekly crop condition ratings released in mid-September put corn 8 percent harvested against a five-year average of 6 percent, with about 42 percent of the crop mature versus 38 percent normally; soybeans were roughly 6 percent harvested against a 3 percent average, with 44 percent dropping leaves versus 37 percent. December corn closed the most recent week at $5.27 a bushel, down 3 cents, November soybeans at $13.03, down 16 cents, and December Chicago wheat at $7.13, down 13 cents. Soybean export sales remain the swing factor, with private exporters reporting a further 111,000 tonnes sold to China for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Input costs are moving the other way. DTN's retail survey for the second full week of September found six of eight major fertilizers higher month on month, with anhydrous ammonia averaging $945 a ton, MAP $967, potash $495, DAP $925, 10-34-0 $718 and UAN32 $458; urea averaged $659 a ton and UAN28 $421. Against a year earlier, anhydrous was up 22 percent, 10-34-0 up 8 percent, urea up 6 percent and MAP up 5 percent, while potash and DAP were each about 2 percent higher. No product moved by DTN's 5 percent threshold in either direction, the second consecutive week without a significant move.
Nitrogen prices remain well below their spring peaks — urea is roughly 24 percent off its high and anhydrous about 15 percent — but the direction of travel matters as fall application begins. StoneX fertilizer head Josh Linville argued that a potential US deal to import Belarusian potash would have limited effect, since Belarus still cannot use Lithuanian routing and Latvia, Poland and Ukraine are unlikely to allow transit, leaving Russia as the only practical path with finite throughput. Phosphate products, particularly MAP, remain the most expensive part of the basket because of supply constraints and production issues. USDA has projected a 15.3 percent rise in 2026 spending on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners, adding to farm cost pressure at exactly the point new-crop supply is weighing on prices.