Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Jump Again as Harvest Pressure Weighs on Corn and Soybeans
US nitrogen costs extended their rally with anhydrous ammonia up 15.9 percent on the week and urea 9.1 percent higher, while record September corn stocks and accelerating harvest pushed December corn below $5 a bushel.
Fertilizer input costs moved sharply higher again in the latest weekly US survey, led by the nitrogen complex. Anhydrous ammonia rose $129.50 to $945.00 a short ton, a 15.9 percent weekly gain, while UAN 32 percent added $87.57 to $645.00, up 15.7 percent, and urea climbed $66.25 to $796.25, up 9.1 percent. Potash advanced $36.15 to $571.35, a 6.8 percent increase, whereas phosphates softened, with DAP down $16.27 to $945.56 and MAP off $38.23 to $978.00.
The split matters for fall application economics because growers typically choose between urea, UAN solutions and anhydrous ammonia on a per-unit-nitrogen basis. UAN 28 percent was the one nitrogen product to fall, dropping $66.66 to $533.34, a 11.1 percent decline, and ammonium sulfate eased $7.05 to $573.50. With ammonia and UAN 32 both up roughly 16 percent in a single week, the relative cost advantage between nitrogen sources has shifted materially for anyone still booking tonnes for the 2027 crop.
Grain markets are moving the other way, squeezing the cost-revenue ratio. US corn stocks on 1 September were estimated at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35 percent from a year earlier and the largest for that date since the 2018-19 season, which pushed December corn back below $5 a bushel to about $4.99. Weekly corn export sales of 536,000 tonnes were down 36 percent from the previous week, and US ethanol output fell 21,000 barrels a day to 1.007 million, the lowest since January.
Soybeans offered the one genuinely supportive demand signal even as prices fell. Weekly US soybean sales reached 1.034 million tonnes, up 78 percent week on week, with China taking 589,400 tonnes, and total 2026-27 commitments have reached 817 million bushels, nearly double year-earlier levels. November soybeans still slid to around $12.75 a bushel, their weakest in roughly five weeks, as drier Midwest weather accelerates harvest; USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey noted the quick pace of Southern soybean harvest as the main factor behind the rapid national numbers as of 20 September. The market now turns to the 9 October Crop Production and WASDE update for fresh yield and balance-sheet estimates.