USDA Cuts Corn Stocks and Lifts Farm Prices as China's Urea Exports Take the Edge Off Nitrogen
The September WASDE trimmed US corn production and ending stocks and raised season-average farm prices for corn, soybeans and wheat, while a surge in Chinese urea exports and a large Indian tender have pulled nitrogen prices well below the crisis highs seen earlier this year.
The US Department of Agriculture's September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates tightened the 2026/27 corn balance sheet. Corn yield was cut by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5, taking production down 213 million bushels to about 15.8 billion, and ending stocks fell to roughly 1.567 billion bushels. USDA raised its season-average corn farm price by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel, reflecting the tighter carryout and a still-large but reduced usage base.
Soybeans moved the other way on production but still ended tighter on stocks. Output was lifted 16 million bushels to about 4.535 billion as yield improved, but higher exports pulled ending stocks down to 310 million bushels and the season-average farm price was raised 60 cents to $12.00. Wheat was left broadly unchanged at roughly 717 million bushels of ending stocks, with the farm price up 20 cents to $6.40, while global corn and soybean stocks both eased and world wheat stocks rose.
Nitrogen is moving in the opposite direction. Global urea prices slipped to about $443 a tonne in early September and remain roughly 13% above both month-ago and year-ago levels, but that is far below the emergency levels of the spring. India's Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers tendered for 1.7 million tonnes and China is expected to supply around 1.2 million tonnes of it, with the lowest offers from Ameropa landing at $390.25 a tonne on the east coast and $393.65 on the west coast, roughly 58% below the $935 to $959 a tonne India paid in an emergency purchase in April.
The swing factor is Chinese export policy. Beijing expanded its 2026 urea export allowance to roughly 5 to 5.5 million tonnes, and monthly shipments jumped from about 7,000 tonnes in June to roughly 403,000 tonnes in July, taking cumulative exports through July to around 907,000 tonnes. European producers are on the wrong side of that trade: with Dutch TTF gas above 66.50 euros per megawatt hour, the break-even for an efficient European urea plant is near $605 a tonne ex-works, well above prevailing global spot prices.