China Lithium Carbonate Slides Below CNY 100,000 a Tonne as Port Stocks Rebuild and Restart Bets Grow

Chinese lithium carbonate extended its slide in the week to 16 October, with 100ppi's week-41 battery-chain board showing industrial-grade carbonate falling 10.81% to CNY 99,000 a tonne from CNY 111,000, and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide dropping 11.83% to CNY 82,000 from CNY 93,000. Cobalt fell 5.29% and nickel 2.67% over the same five sessions, leaving the battery-materials complex as the weakest part of the Chinese non-ferrous board. Mysteel's 16 October evening assessment put battery-grade carbonate at CNY 99,500-103,500 a tonne and industrial-grade at CNY 97,500-101,500, each CNY 1,750 lower than the previous session, while its 600,000-tonne-plus producer quotes showed the same direction. On a benchmark basis, 100ppi's industrial-grade carbonate price of CNY 101,000 on 16 October was 14.41% below the CNY 118,000 printed at the start of the month.

The futures leg broke first. The most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange touched CNY 104,680 on 12 October, its weakest since 17 December 2025, and closed the daytime session down 11.8% at CNY 104,740 - the steepest daily fall since March and roughly half the 33-month high of CNY 209,880 struck on 13 May. Reuters attributed the break to a European Union agreement that could cut Chinese hybrid-car exports to the bloc by more than half, with Orient Securities noting the deal means Chinese export growth to the EU will slow; Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium shares fell 5.1% and 3.9% respectively on the day. Supply-side sentiment has been eroded by recurring speculation over a restart of CATL's Jianxiawo mica mine, while Mineral Resources has restarted Bald Hill and Core Lithium has restarted Finniss.

Physical balances are loosening at the margin even as downstream schedules stay high. Mysteel reports that port physical stocks of lithium ore reached 347,000 tonnes on 15 October, up 29,000 tonnes week on week, with trader spot inventories also up 29,000 tonnes to 209,000 tonnes; salt refiners have become more cautious about pricing and are buying hand-to-mouth at lower levels. Sichuan's Jiada deposit added 423,700 tonnes of contained lithium oxide to its resource base, taking the cumulative total past one million tonnes, and Zimbabwe has confirmed its January 2027 spodumene concentrate export ban will not be extended - both reinforcing expectations of looser forward supply. Demand has not collapsed: Mysteel notes October lithium-iron-phosphate schedules are still seen rising 3.61% month on month after September output of more than 610,000 tonnes, with the slowdown in ramp-ups driven by phosphate raw-material constraints rather than lost orders.

The split between strong physical offtake and weak forward pricing has left the market trading expectations rather than inventories. Mysteel argues the near term is pricing in weaker demand at the start of next year, with the key watch-items being whether battery makers actually cut year-end schedules and how quickly warehouse receipts are drawn down. With self-sufficient miners still able to tolerate current levels but purchased-ore refiners carrying cash costs near CNY 140,000 a tonne, a sustained stay below CNY 100,000 would put the high-cost segment of Chinese conversion capacity under real pressure and raise the odds of production cuts or consolidation before year-end.