Copper Steady Near $14,400 as Aluminium Slides to a Two-Month Low
LME copper held firm and was set for a third straight monthly gain on better Chinese factory activity and shrinking Shanghai inventories, while aluminium extended losses to its weakest since late July and Escondida strike risk added a fresh supply question.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.1% at $14,416.50 a metric ton by 1600 GMT on Wednesday, still heading for a monthly gain of 0.9% and a third-quarter rise of 7.9%, having set a record of $14,875 a ton on September 10, according to a Reuters report carried by MINING.COM on September 30. Support came from demand rather than any fresh disruption: China's official purchasing managers' index for copper-intensive manufacturing rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, returning to expansion. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 17.8% from the previous week to 38,744 tons, their lowest since January 2024, and the exchange closed on Thursday for the National Day holiday, reopening October 8, which removes the main Chinese price signal from the market for a week.
Analysts read the pattern as a balance that stays tight rather than a demand boom. ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said copper is finding support from expectations of a relatively tight market balance over the coming quarters, adding that while uncertainty around global growth and trade policy remains a consideration, structural demand trends and constrained supply growth should keep prices well supported through the fourth quarter. That framing matters because it puts the burden on supply: with Shanghai stocks drawn down and refinery maintenance scheduled in China over October and November, small changes in availability are amplified while the largest physical pool sits in US warehouses that are not freely available to the rest of the world.
The rest of the LME complex was softer. Aluminium fell 1.7% to $3,160 a ton, its lowest since July 29, losing ground for a third consecutive session, and Marex flagged a bearish technical backdrop after the metal slipped below its 55-day moving average, pointing to support around $3,100 to $3,125 and asking whether systematic selling follows. Zinc shed 1.3% to $3,818.50, lead lost 1.2% to $1,874.50, its weakest since September 14, tin slipped 0.1% to $53,870, and nickel was the only gainer, up 0.1% to $15,970. On the supply side, supervisors at BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, rejected the company's final offer on September 30, which under Chilean law sends the parties into a mandatory five-day government-led mediation before any legal strike can begin, putting supply risk back on the calendar for a market with very little inventory cushion outside the United States.