EIA Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $91 as Middle East Outages Hold Above 5 Million bpd
The US Energy Information Administration lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $91.01 a barrel in the September Short-Term Energy Outlook, citing Middle East crude outages that averaged 6.7 million bpd in August and are seen persisting near 5.7 million bpd through the fourth quarter.
Brent averaged $91 a barrel in August, up $7 from July, as export constraints forced Middle East producers to cut additional output, the EIA said in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook released on 9 September. The agency raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $91.01 from $86.81 a month earlier and lifted WTI to $84.65 from $80.88. For 2027 it now sees Brent at $73.74 and WTI at $69.74, up from $69.39 and $65.39 respectively. The revision reflects both a higher assumed outage path and a deeper global stock draw.
The EIA estimated that Middle East crude production shut in by the conflict reached about 6.7 million bpd in August, up from 5.0 million bpd in July, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb still restricted. It assumes outages average roughly 5.7 million bpd in the fourth quarter and that regional output only returns to pre-conflict levels around the second quarter of 2027. Global oil inventories have already fallen by about 400 million barrels this year, and the agency expects further draws through the end of 2026. Even with gradually increasing Hormuz transits and more ship-to-ship transfers, the agency assumes export constraints persist into year-end.
Spot benchmarks moved ahead of the forecast. Brent touched $108.68 and WTI $103.45 on 11 September after Iran said it had attacked 10 vessels near Hormuz following US strikes on five Iranian tankers, with both benchmarks having gained more than 6% in the previous session. By 16 September WTI was indicated near $104.93 and Brent near $107.91. The prompt structure remains steeply backwardated, with front-month WTI trading roughly $25 above the June 2027 contract.
Gas markets tightened in parallel. Northeast Asia JKM spot LNG climbed to the high-USD 28s per MMBtu on 10 September, the highest in about two and a half years, before easing to around $27.77 by 16 September as Northeast Asian demand softened. European TTF traded near $27.0 to $27.8 per MMBtu, supported by unplanned Norwegian maintenance at Asgard, Troll and Kollsnes and the shutdown of the Interconnector UK pipeline. EU underground storage was 67.8% full on 11 September, down 15.7% year on year and 19.6% below the five-year average, while US working gas stocks stood at 3,254 Bcf as of 4 September, 4.8% above the five-year average.