Google TPU v9 Slips Toward 2028 as Packaging Yields Bite and Taiwan ASIC Makers Surge

Google's next-generation TPU v9, in which MediaTek handles the Core B and I/O design, is now expected to ship in the first quarter of 2028, TrendForce reported on 19 October, citing Commercial Times and institutional investors. A redesign of the Core A block, codenamed Humufish, delayed development by about three weeks and forced corresponding changes to MediaTek's portion, pushing tape-out to January 2027 and production tape-out to the second quarter. The November 2026 sampling target is unchanged.

Advanced packaging is the binding constraint. TrendForce said the chip is expected to use Intel's EMIB-T packaging and that substrate yield remains the key challenge for capacity expansion and cost competitiveness. GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu, citing supply chain checks, put current EMIB-T substrate yields at 45-50% but said the supply chain has probably identified the root cause of the yield problem and could accelerate improvement. Taiwanese brokerage commentary citing SemiAnalysis also noted that rival labs such as Anthropic and OpenAI could each add 5-10 GW of capacity in 2027 while Google adds only a few gigawatts.

The delay is not slowing the wider Taiwan ASIC complex. TrendForce and Taiwanese media reported September revenue of NT$7.145 billion at Global Unichip, up 97.8% year on year and a monthly record, on cloud CPU and ASIC projects, while Alchip posted NT$9.979 billion, up 496% year on year, on higher 3nm AI accelerator shipments. Faraday has secured Samsung's 2nm process design kit and completed an Intel 18A-P design environment to chase 2027 projects, as Samsung's 4nm capacity is reported fully utilised and AI ASIC clients begin evaluating its 2nm node.

Demand forecasts keep rising at the same time. Institutional investors expect global AI ASIC accelerator shipments to reach 14.1 million units in 2027, up about 69% year on year. TrendForce, citing Bloomberg, reported that ByteDance is close to agreeing to purchase data-center chips from MediaTek, which would be MediaTek's second major ASIC customer after Google, subject to US licensing. Broadcom's Sunfish programme is still seen requiring roughly 460,000 CoWoS wafers for 2027 ASIC demand, with shipments starting around the end of 2026.

For supply planning, the read-through is that packaging and substrate capacity, not design capability, is setting the schedule. MediaTek's v8t volumes remain steady and its v9 share is still described as complete, while the TPU v10 programme for 2028, codenamed Icefish on A14, is expected to be supplied by MediaTek together with Global Unichip on 3DIC. Any further slip in EMIB-T substrate yields would push the 2027 ASIC shipment forecast, and with it CoWoS and HBM allocations, later still.