Heavy Rains Delay US Corn and Soybean Harvest as Fertilizer Prices Split Between Nitrogen and Phosphate
USDA meteorologists flagged heavy rain across western corn and soybean belts, while US fertilizer benchmarks showed urea easing to $730 a short ton even as DAP jumped more than 26% over 90 days, and StoneX argued an energy shock is now reshaping grain demand.
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey used the department's September 22 radio newsline to describe heavy rains over the past week and their effect on areas of the western corn and soybean belts, a timing risk for a harvest already running late. Moisture delays matter more than usual at this stage because the market is transitioning from yield potential to harvest confirmation, and wet fields slow combining and lift basis at interior elevators while the export window is open.
Fertilizer inputs are sending mixed signals into the 2027 crop budget. FertilizerPrice.com's weekly US survey, updated September 28, puts urea at $730 a short ton, down $39.18 or 5.1% on the week, with anhydrous ammonia at $815.50, down 5.0%, UAN 32% at $557.43, down 11.8%, potash at $535.20, down 1.5%, and ammonium sulfate at $580.55, down 4.1%. Phosphate is the exception: DAP rose $202.48 to $961.83 a ton, a 26.7% gain over 90 days, while MAP eased 1.1% to $1,016.23 and UAN 28% gained 17.7% to $600.00. The split means nitrogen affordability is improving at the margin for row-crop producers just as phosphate costs tighten.
Demand is being rewritten by energy. Mike Castle, senior commodities economist at StoneX, said in a September 24 note that he now leans toward corn over soybeans because an energy shock is supporting grain and oilseed markets by incentivising biofuel demand in the US and globally and by preventing additional supply from leaving Brazil, which in turn leaves US exports more competitive. Winter wheat has recorded its highest prices for the fall price discovery period in four years, and Castle's conclusion is that these markets have to buy acres, meaning corn, soybeans and wheat will all compete for 2027 plantings while USDA's Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage enrolment is open.
Export bids reflect the same tension between firm demand and harvest pressure. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data for September 25, as summarised by IndexBox, show Gulf basis bids unchanged across all delivery periods, with US No. 2 yellow corn for current delivery averaging $5.9125 a bushel against $5.0150 a year earlier, No. 1 soybeans at $14.0050 against $10.7225, and No. 2 soft red winter wheat at $7.3075 against $5.5725. Corn rose $0.0075 a bushel for current through December delivery and soybeans $0.0150, while wheat fell $0.0375 for current through December and $0.0325 for January.