US Corn and Soybean Inspections Surge Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit as USDA Tightens Balances
Corn inspected for export reached 1.94 million metric tons in the week ended September 17, up from 1.55 million the prior week and 1.39 million a year ago, while soybean inspections hit 759,193 tons with China the top buyer. Grains rallied on Monday on hopes the Trump-Xi meeting delivers fresh Chinese commitments and a possible removal of the 10% soybean tariff.
US export inspections accelerated sharply in the week ended September 17, according to Agriculture Department data. Corn inspections totalled 1.94 million metric tons, up from 1.55 million the previous week and 1.39 million in the same week a year earlier. Soybean inspections reached 759,193 metric tons, compared with 680,252 the prior week and 565,630 a year ago, with China the largest buyer. Wheat was the weak spot, with inspections falling to 335,253 tons from 472,980 the previous week and 939,803 a year earlier, with Mexico the top destination and Japan the main outlet for corn.
Futures responded on Monday. December corn rose 2.9% to $5.43 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybeans gained 1.9% to $13.28 and December wheat added 1.8% to $7.26-3/4. The move was driven by expectations that this week's meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping will produce fresh Chinese purchase commitments. AgResource said US grains should benefit as the administration looks for a diplomatic win ahead of the midterms, and noted high hopes that China will drop its 10% tariff on US soybeans and grain. Wet weekend weather that probably slowed harvesting and continued Russia-Ukraine fighting added support.
The underlying balance sheet has already tightened. In the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA cut 2026/27 corn production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion after lowering the yield estimate 2.2 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre, the first September report to incorporate the objective yield survey. Corn ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion and the season-average farm price was raised 30 cents to $4.80. Soybeans moved the other way on production but not on stocks: output rose 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion, yet exports were lifted 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, pulling ending stocks down to 310 million and lifting the farm price 60 cents to $12.00.
Wheat is the offset. USDA left US wheat supplies and use broadly unchanged but raised the season-average farm price 20 cents to $6.40, while lifting global ending stocks 3.0 million tons to 276.3 million on bigger crops in Australia, Canada and Ukraine. The agency said weaker August shipments from Russia and Ukraine led it to cut world wheat trade estimates, noting that war in the Black Sea region hampers logistics. World corn ending stocks were reduced 2.6 million tons to 272.1 million and world soybean stocks edged 0.2 million lower to 124.0 million, so the global feed-grain picture is tightening even as wheat loosens.
Cost pressure is the swing factor for basis. Rail fuel surcharges on grain shipments have risen 153% from a year ago and now account for about 11% of corn and soybean rail transportation costs, up from 5% last year, according to Reuters data cited by Grain Market Insider. Higher freight costs risk being passed back to farmers through weaker local basis just as harvest supplies build, with 8% of the corn crop and 6% of soybeans already harvested against five-year averages of 6% and 3%. StoneX cautioned that the slow start to the wheat marketing year is not yet a concern given the effective closure of the Black Sea, but the unresolved question is whether diverted trade flows actually reach US wheat.