US Soybean Inspections Jump to 1.15 Million Tons as Tariff Relief Skips Beans
USDA weekly data showed a sharp rebound in soybean export inspections, but CBOT grains fell after reports that Beijing's tariff on US soybeans survives while the broader US-China package covers other farm goods.
Export inspections of US soybeans totalled 1.15 million metric tons for the week ended September 24, up from 769,698 tons the previous week and 610,633 tons at the same point last year, according to USDA data reported by Dow Jones Newswires on September 28. Corn inspections slipped to 1.57 million tons from 1.96 million a week earlier but stayed above 1.54 million a year ago, while wheat fell to 310,635 tons from 339,955 and from 873,578 a year earlier. Grain commentary tracking the same release put marketing-year-to-date soybean inspections at roughly 2.84 million tons against 2.26 million a year ago and corn at 5.73 million against 5.11 million, with wheat well behind at about 6.34 million versus 9.67 million, so row-crop exports have clearly improved while wheat remains the weak link competing against abundant Black Sea supply.
Prices went the other way on the policy news. Reuters reported on September 28 that China and the United States pledged tariff cuts covering about $60 billion of goods including agriculture, while setting up an agriculture working group under a trade council that will meet before the end of the year to discuss market access and regulation. CBOT futures fell in Monday trade anyway, with the most-active soybean contract down 2.4%, corn down 1.5% and wheat down 2.2%, according to Dow Jones Newswires, as the summit produced no new purchase commitments for farm goods. Market commentary attributed the soybean weakness specifically to reports that China's existing tariff on US soybeans stays in place, which leaves private Chinese crushers without the commercial incentive traders had positioned for.
The split between physical loading data and paper prices is the signal to watch. The inspection data showed shipments to China and Japan leading soybean loadings, while Mexico and South Korea led for corn, so real cargoes are moving even as futures slide. At the same time, harvest pressure is building in the western Corn Belt, where persistent rain has delayed fieldwork and crushers have bid up for prompt delivery, pushing some plant-level basis values sharply higher. The next USDA supply and demand estimates are due October 9, which will be the first official attempt to reconcile stronger-than-expected early-year export loadings with a harvest that is running late.