USDA Sets Record $13.8bn ARC and PLC Payments as Corn Stocks and Nitrogen Costs Diverge
The USDA said Farm Service Agency Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programmes will generate roughly $13.8bn in gross payments for the 2025 crop year, a record for the revenue and price safety net. The outlay coincides with heavy US corn stocks, softer nitrogen prices and Black Sea shipping risk that continues to underpin wheat.
US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced on 7 October that the Farm Service Agency's Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programmes will generate approximately $13.8bn in gross payments to eligible agricultural producers for the 2025 crop year, a record for the revenue and price safety net. The scale of the outlay is itself a price signal: PLC triggers when effective crop prices fall below statutory reference prices, so a record year implies materially weaker realised prices for programme crops. It arrives as growers finalise 2026 input budgets and as harvest pressure builds across the US Corn Belt.
Grain markets are being pulled in opposite directions. US corn stocks as of 1 September were reported at 53.2m tonnes, up 35% year on year and above market expectations, and with the US harvest advancing, Chicago corn fell 2% on the week to about A$282 a tonne and sits only 1% above its level a month ago, according to The Land's weekly review. Wheat found support from the Black Sea, where Russia has rejected proposals for a truce in attacks on maritime and port infrastructure; Chicago wheat was unchanged on the week at A$361/t, Kansas wheat broadly flat at A$389/t and French wheat up 1% to A$391/t. Saudi Arabia returned as a buyer, purchasing around 683,000 tonnes in its latest tender - more than the 535,000 tonnes initially sought - at an average price near A$471/t C&F, after cancelling its previous tender in September when prices were judged too high.
Fertiliser offered partial relief. Australian urea fell 4% on the week to A$832 a tonne, although it remains 6% higher over the month and 11% above a year earlier, while phosphate markets are starting to soften as weak global demand meets tight availability and restricted Chinese exports. In South Africa, urea was indicated around R9,000/t landed in Durban, with MAP broadly unchanged near R14,450/t, KCl around R7,825/t and ammonium sulphate up to roughly R6,580/t, according to AMT's weekly grain overview. Sovecon has cut its forecast for Russian 2026/27 grain exports to 44.7m tonnes from 49.4m and warned that Azov and Black Sea ports could remain shut into 2027, keeping a floor under global wheat values.