Brent Holds Near $101 as Saudi Rerouting and Thin Inventories Offset Record Gulf Flows
Crude held close to $101 a barrel as Saudi Arabia pushed record volumes through its East-West pipeline to bypass Hormuz, while Aramco's chief executive warned global inventories were 'scarily thin' and Gulf exports recovered to 81% of pre-war levels.
ICE Brent front-month traded around $101.51 a barrel early on Wednesday, up 93 cents on the session, while NYMEX WTI gained 82 cents to $90.25, according to a Reuters wire carried by Channel NewsAsia. The move came as US forecasters said a system forming in the Gulf of Mexico would likely become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days, threatening offshore areas that produce roughly 15% of US crude output and 5% of its natural gas.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline had moved 5.8 million barrels of crude as of Tuesday morning, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, adding more oil to the kingdom's Red Sea export route and reducing reliance on the Hormuz chokepoint. Separately, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser warned that the world has lost nearly 3 billion barrels of gross oil supply since the Iran war began, leaving commercial inventories 'scarily thin'.
Crude exports out of the Persian Gulf reached 81% of pre-war levels last month, according to Kpler and Vortexa data cited by OilPrice, showing how quickly Middle East loadings have normalised even though the strait remains a live risk. US crude stocks fell by 2.09 million barrels in the week ended October 2, API data showed, while distillate inventories rose only marginally.
The net effect is a finely balanced complex: ample OPEC+ barrels and recovering Gulf loadings are being offset by the lowest commercial stocks in years and a middle-distillate market that remains tight. Refineries in the US Gulf states account for about half of national capacity of 18.2 million barrels a day, and the approaching storm could affect as many as six of them, keeping product cracks elevated even if crude itself stays range-bound.