TrendForce Sees 4Q26 DRAM Contracts Up 10-15% as Enterprise SSD Is the Only Category to Accelerate
TrendForce's latest quarterly outlook puts conventional DRAM contract prices up 10-15% quarter on quarter in 4Q26 and NAND Flash up 15-20%, with enterprise solid-state drives the only memory product whose rate of increase is expected to accelerate as cloud providers build out AI inference capacity.
TrendForce now expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, decelerating from the 13-18% gain recorded in the third quarter, while total DRAM including HBM is seen accelerating to 15-20% from 8-13%. NAND Flash contract prices are projected to increase 15-20%, also a step down from the 18-23% booked in 3Q26. Suppliers continue to allocate advanced-process wafers to high-performance server parts first, which keeps the overall market undersupplied even as the pace of increase cools.
Server DRAM remains the tightest segment. Improving server CPU availability has pushed cloud service providers and server OEMs to lift bit purchases to cover RDIMM demand from general-purpose servers running agentic AI workloads. Supplier attempts to raise the share of lower-capacity RDIMMs have not closed the gap, because component supply, packaging and test capacity and front-end DRAM process flexibility all limit how quickly the mix can shift. Some sellers will still lag the market average where long-term agreement price bands cap increases.
Enterprise SSDs are the outlier. TrendForce projects bit demand for the category to grow more than 80% year on year in 2026 as hyperscalers expand AI inference infrastructure and as agentic AI drives real-time retrieval and caching volumes, with QLC penetration in vector databases rising. Suppliers are adding QLC capacity and high-capacity models and PCIe 6.0 is ramping alongside next-generation AI server platforms, but most incremental supply is already committed, leaving little available on the open market.
Consumer-linked categories are softer. Notebook inventories are now reflecting higher component costs and weighing on end-market sales, though PC OEMs keep buying aggressively on expectations that DRAM supply will tighten further in 2027. Client SSD pricing has become more flexible because buyers hold stock built in the first half and brands are cutting mainstream capacities, and eMMC and UFS procurement from handset makers remains limited to minimum volumes needed to hold supplier relationships.