US Fertilizer Costs Jump as Urea and Ammonia Lead Nitrogen Complex Higher

The latest US fertilizer survey shows urea at $796.25 per short ton, up $66.25 or 9.1% on the week, while anhydrous ammonia rose $129.50 to $945.00, a 15.9% increase. UAN 32% climbed $87.57 to $645.00, up 15.7%, and potash gained $36.15 to $571.35, up 6.8%. Phosphate products were the exception: DAP slipped $16.27 to $945.56 and MAP fell $38.23 to $978.00, while UAN 28% dropped $66.66 to $533.34 and ammonium sulfate eased $7.05 to $573.50. The figures are distributor asking prices tracked across US agricultural regions and point to nitrogen, not phosphate, as the pressure point for spring planning.

The divergence matters because nitrogen is the largest controllable input cost in US row-crop production and the products moving hardest are the ones most exposed to natural gas and ammonia economics. A near-16% weekly move in anhydrous ammonia and a 9% rise in urea would raise per-acre costs materially for corn, where application rates are highest, at a time when growers are already making 2027 planting decisions. Potash's smaller 6.8% gain and the outright declines in DAP and MAP mean the cost squeeze is concentrated in the nitrogen complex rather than spread evenly across the fertilizer basket.

Farm balance sheets are getting offsetting support from policy. The USDA announced that Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage will generate approximately $13.8 billion in gross payments for the 2025 crop year, the largest annual payout since the programs were created in the 2014 Farm Bill. Sixteen crops triggered PLC payments, including corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, grain sorghum, peanuts, canola, seed cotton, dry peas, lentils, chickpeas, flaxseed and safflower. Payments are subject to a statutory 5.7% sequestration and a $160,000 payment limit for 2025, and producers will automatically receive the higher of the ARC or PLC rate regardless of their election.

The combination of record safety-net payments and rising input costs is the defining feature of the current cycle. Higher statutory reference prices and 30 million additional base acres, prorated by 3.69% against a national cap, strengthen the floor under farm revenue for 2026 and beyond, but they do not reduce the cash outlay required to buy nitrogen. With enrollment for the 2026 crop year open, growers are effectively being asked to lock coverage against a price environment where the largest single input is repricing upward week by week.