WTI Climbs 10.4 Percent in a Week to $101.41 as Hormuz Tanker Attacks Slam Gulf Flows
Market Pulse Scope's WTI crude series rose 10.4% over seven sessions to $101.41 a barrel on Oct 19, the steepest weekly gain on the site's energy board, as a fresh wave of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz cut Persian Gulf loadings and pushed Brent back above $110.
The WTI series tracked by Market Pulse Scope ran from $91.85 a barrel on Oct 12 to $101.41 on Oct 19, a 10.4% move that makes it the single largest seven-day gainer among the site's liquid energy markers. The broader North America crude-oil dataset closed at $98.50 a barrel on Oct 20, up 4.6% on the week, after Brent topped $110 intraday on Oct 19 for its highest level in five months. OilPrice reported Brent at $109.68 and WTI at $98.55 at the time of writing, with the rally driven by traders turning pessimistic about the resumption of normal oil flows out of the Persian Gulf.
The supply shock is measurable. Kpler, which earlier this month said Gulf oil exports had recovered to pre-war levels, now reports that daily average flows out of the Persian Gulf shrank to 8.5 million barrels from more than 20 million barrels daily two weeks earlier, following at least 18 tanker attacks over the past fortnight. ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote that prices remain well supported despite relatively strong Gulf flows, which suggests the market is pricing in a significant risk premium, and added that if flows stayed stable the war premium would gradually vanish — "Clearly, there are no signs of this yet."
The rest of the site's energy complex is decoupling from crude. The North America LNG marker jumped 15.0% over the week to $30.01 per MMBtu on Oct 19, while the natural gas marker eased 8.4% to $3.0065 per MMBtu and gasoline slipped 1.8% to $3.1925 a gallon by Oct 20. That split reflects a global gas and LNG squeeze running far hotter than the US domestic balance, where mild weather and ample storage have kept Henry Hub anchored even as crude rebuilds a geopolitical premium.
Policy and demand signals are moving with the price. The United States put a further 17 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude on offer on Oct 16, one day after the IEA accelerated emergency stock releases, as governments scramble to cap fuel costs. Demand destruction is already visible in the importer data: India paid $15.4 billion for crude in September, 46% more than the $10.5 billion bill a year earlier, while Iraq has still managed to average more than 3.4 million barrels a day of exports so far in October, close to pre-war levels.