Analysts Lift 2026 Brent Forecast to $89 as Hormuz Disruption Outlasts Recovery Hopes
A Reuters poll of 30 economists raised the 2026 Brent average to $89.05 a barrel from $85.08 a month earlier as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stay impaired, while OPEC+ is expected to leave output targets unchanged at its Sunday meeting.
Analysts have sharply lifted their 2026 crude price forecasts as hopes fade for a quick normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A September Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts put the average Brent price for 2026 at $89.05 a barrel, up from $85.08 in the August poll, and raised the West Texas Intermediate average to $83.90 from $80.20. Individual Brent forecasts spanned a wide $77.27 to $97.60 range, reflecting how little consensus exists on how durable the Gulf flow recovery will actually be.
On the supply side, the picture is mixed but still tight. Goldman Sachs estimates total Gulf oil exports reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly matching the 2025 average after exports doubled during September, though that figure includes vessels running with transponders switched off. HSBC is modelling only gradual improvement and describes Hormuz as structurally impaired, with liquids flows still well below the 19-20 million bpd that transited the waterway before the war, while DBS Bank said it is not assuming the conflict is resolved within three to six months.
Demand is the other swing factor. FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have cut their fourth-quarter Chinese import forecasts by about 400,000 bpd to 9.2-9.3 million bpd after Brent climbed back above $100, freight costs surged and discounted Iranian and Venezuelan barrels largely disappeared, even though Chinese imports have recovered from June's decade low to nearly 9 million bpd in August. OPEC+ is unlikely to add much immediate supply, with the group expected to keep current production targets unchanged when eight members meet on Sunday, and most analysts in the poll do not expect the market to return to surplus until 2027.
The balance of risks therefore still leans to tighter inventories rather than cheaper crude. EIU analysts told Reuters that weaker manufacturing activity and slower global growth should keep prices below the peaks reached immediately after the conflict began, but they also expect oil stocks to fall substantially as consuming countries keep drawing on commercial and emergency reserves. For refiners and physical buyers, that combination keeps front-end crude and middle-distillate coverage expensive even as the forward curve signals eventual rebalancing.