DRAM Contract Prices Slow to a 10-15% Quarterly Gain Even as Supplier Inventories Fall to Two Weeks
TrendForce sees conventional DRAM contracts up 10-15% in the fourth quarter, the slowest gain of the cycle, while supplier inventories sit at two to four weeks and HBM absorbs new capacity.
TrendForce's latest quarterly assessment puts conventional DRAM contract prices up 10-15% in the fourth quarter, or 15-20% once HBM is included, with NAND Flash contracts rising 15-20%. That is the slowest sequential increase of the cycle: the same series rose roughly 80% in the second quarter and about 40% in the third. Enterprise SSDs are the only segment where the increase is widening rather than narrowing, as hyperscalers keep bidding for nearline capacity tied to AI storage build-outs.
Supply has not loosened to match the slower price momentum. Supplier inventories are down to two to four weeks, advanced wafer capacity keeps shifting toward HBM and server DRAM, and output cuts of up to 50% remain in place in some commodity lines, with makers still rationing allocations. PC and handset makers have become visibly resistant to further increases, moving to just-in-time purchases and inventory drawdowns, according to Sigmaintell. Memory has climbed from 10-15% of a device bill of materials to 30-40%, overtaking the SoC as the single most expensive component in a notebook or handset.
Spot references show how uneven the squeeze has become. Market Pulse Scope's US series prints DDR5 16Gb at $37.03 a chip and the older DDR4 16Gb at $71.50, an inversion that reflects how little capacity is still allocated to DDR4, while 512Gb TLC wafers sit at $20.00. SK hynix's third-quarter results illustrate the contract side of the market: revenue of KRW 104.62 trillion, operating profit of KRW 83.33 trillion and an 80% operating margin, with 14 long-term agreement customers covering more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity and DRAM and HBM output effectively sold out through 2029.
The deceleration therefore describes price momentum rather than price direction. HBM4 is set to overtake HBM3E in shipments and revenue this quarter, suppliers are still rationing allocations, and TrendForce expects contract prices to keep rising into 2027, just more slowly. For buyers the practical signal is that easing is appearing first in consumer spot markets, where retail SSD and memory-card prices have already softened, while server DRAM and HBM allocations remain the binding constraint on how much of the supply chain can be served at all.