Brent Reclaims $102 as Third US Carrier Heads to Middle East and China Halts Fuel Exports
Crude benchmarks posted their largest single-day gain in weeks on October 1, with ICE Brent settling at $102.31 and NYMEX WTI at $92.87, after Washington confirmed a third aircraft carrier strike group and up to 10,000 additional troops for the Middle East while Chinese refiners cancelled October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes.
Oil benchmarks surged on Thursday, with the ICE Brent front-month December contract jumping 4.4%, or $4.28, to close at $102.31 a barrel and NYMEX WTI November rising 2.7%, or $2.45, to settle at $92.87. The move put Brent back above the $100 mark and stretched the transatlantic spread beyond $9 a barrel, reflecting how much of the rally is concentrated in seaborne, waterborne-priced grades rather than US inland barrels.
The geopolitical catalyst was a report that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, Marine Corps ships and up to 10,000 extra troops will reach the region by the end of November, a deployment interpreted as preparation for a further escalation against Iran. Physical risk was reinforced at the same time: at least three commercial tankers came under attack while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz during the week, even though Gulf crude loadings have recovered to roughly 23.3 million barrels a day, broadly in line with pre-conflict averages.
Product markets tightened separately from crude. Chinese refiners cancelled a number of gasoline and jet fuel exports scheduled for October, a sign Beijing is prioritising domestic supply, while Russia's diesel export ban remains in force after Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. US retail diesel averaged about $6.40 a gallon, near the record highs set last month, and President Trump has publicly weighed a diesel export ban before appearing to step back from the idea.
The combination leaves refiners and downstream petrochemical crackers facing a rigid cost floor. Middle-distillate availability, not crude supply, is now the binding constraint, and with Washington pressing European allies to tap emergency diesel reserves, product cracks are likely to stay elevated even if headline crude flows continue to normalise ahead of the next OPEC+ policy decision.