Copper Holds Above $14,400 as Chile Strike Risk Adds to a Market Starved of Available Inventory
LME three-month copper steadied near $14,446 a tonne after workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine voted to strike, compounding a supply squeeze that has pushed the metal toward a third consecutive monthly gain of about 9% in September.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $14,446 a tonne on September 29, holding above $14,400 after workers in two unions at Antofagasta's Centinela operation in Chile rejected the company's final contract offer, MINING.COM reported. The vote opens a mandatory mediation period before any walkout can begin. Wage talks at BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, were also delayed following a fatal accident, adding a second Chilean labour risk to a market that already has little spare capacity.
The physical picture remains tight. Large volumes of refined copper have accumulated in US warehouses as traders position for a possible import tariff, which has reduced the metal readily available to buyers elsewhere, while China's Yangshan import premium is near its highest level since 2022. Copper is on track for a third consecutive monthly gain, up about 9% in September after touching a record $14,875 earlier in the month, and the rest of the LME complex moved modestly alongside it, with aluminium up 0.43%, zinc up 0.26% and lead up 0.34%, while nickel and tin each slipped 0.09%.
Supply data supports the bullish structural case. The International Copper Study Group reported that mine production ran at an annualized 23 million tonnes in July, down 4% from June, while refined demand rose 3% from a year earlier to an annualized 29 million tonnes and refined supply slipped 1% to 28.4 million tonnes. Deutsche Bank expects copper to climb to about $22,000 a tonne by the second quarter of 2027 if competition for available supplies intensifies.
Macro headwinds are still capping the move. Copper fell as much as 1.4% on September 28 to its lowest level since September 17 after weaker Chinese industrial profit data, with a firmer dollar and Brent crude above $106 a barrel reinforcing inflation expectations and prompting markets to price a Federal Reserve rate increase in October. Chinese downstream users have largely completed pre-holiday restocking ahead of the National Day break and are buying only as needed, which limits near-term upside even as available inventories stay thin.