TrendForce Lifts 4Q26 Memory Outlook as AI Server Demand Pushes Enterprise SSD Contract Prices Up 23-28%
TrendForce now expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15% quarter-on-quarter and NAND flash 15-20% in the fourth quarter, with hyperscaler demand for QLC enterprise SSDs driving an outsized 23-28% sequential jump.
TrendForce's 4Q26 memory price forecast, last modified on September 24, projects conventional DRAM contract prices rising 10-15% quarter-on-quarter and overall NAND flash contract prices rising 15-20%. The research house highlighted a widening split inside both markets: hyperscalers are raising QLC enterprise SSD orders to accommodate key-value cache workloads, pushing 4Q26 enterprise SSD contract prices up 23-28% sequentially, while consumer segments see only minimal compensatory increases. The firm summarised the driver as a supply shift in which capacity is steered toward server DRAM and HBM, squeezing consumer availability.
On the DRAM side, manufacturers continue to allocate advanced process capacity to high-performance server products, leaving the overall market in a supply deficit even though the pace of contract price increases is slowing. Server CPU availability has improved, letting cloud service providers and server OEMs add bit purchases to fill RDIMM requirements for general-purpose servers running agentic AI workloads. Suppliers have raised the share of low-capacity RDIMM they ship, but component availability, packaging and test capacity, and limited flexibility in front-end DRAM processes mean the supply mix still does not match demand.
PC and mobile are absorbing the cost rather than the volume. PC OEMs are still buying aggressively because they expect DRAM supply to stay tight into 2027, even as higher component costs flow into notebook bills of materials and weigh on end demand. Mobile DRAM pricing is rising as low-cost inventory is exhausted, but smartphone production is being cut back, so the fourth-quarter increase is expected to be smaller than in the prior quarter. TrendForce also expects 2027 PC DRAM supply to shrink as more capacity is redirected to server applications.
The shortage is now distorting cost structures outside the data center. DIGITIMES reported on September 29, citing ET News, that a global memory shortage linked to rising AI infrastructure spending has pushed semiconductor content above display panel costs in some television models, a shift that could compress margins at Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics. TrendForce noted that part of the server DRAM increase is being muted for some sellers because long-term agreement pricing bands cap how far contract prices can move in a single quarter.