US Crude Stocks Slip as Refiners Run Near Full Capacity and Distillate Stays Tight
US commercial crude inventories fell 0.6 million barrels to 423.4 million in the week to September 11 while refineries processed 17.3 million b/d at 96.8% utilisation, leaving distillate stocks 13% below the five-year average. Asian LNG benchmark prices climbed a further 7.6% on the week even as Brent settled near $103.87 a barrel.
US refineries processed 17.3 million barrels per day in the week ended September 11, down 256,000 b/d from the previous week but still equal to 96.8% of operable capacity, according to the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline output averaged 9.6 million b/d while distillate production decreased to 5.2 million b/d. Crude oil imports increased 234,000 b/d to 7.1 million b/d, leaving the four-week average at 6.7 million b/d, some 7.5% above the year-ago level. The combination of near-maximal runs and heavy crude intake shows refiners prioritising barrel throughput over margin protection.
Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased 0.6 million barrels to 423.4 million, roughly 1% above the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories increased 0.8 million barrels but remain 5% below the five-year average, while distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels and still sit 13% below the seasonal norm. Propane and propylene inventories fell 1.4 million barrels yet stand 22% above the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels on the week, so the headline build masks a products complex that is structurally short.
Demand signals were softer. Over the past four weeks total product supplied averaged 20.5 million b/d, down 0.6% year on year, with the gasoline four-week average down 1.0% to 8.8 million b/d and distillate down 3.3% to 3.6 million b/d. Jet fuel was the exception, with four-week product supplied up 4.4% from a year earlier. The split points to resilient transport fuel use against weaker industrial and heating-related distillate consumption, which helps explain why distillate stocks remain so far below normal despite a weekly build.
Price action across the complex stayed elevated and increasingly divergent. Brent crude settled at $103.87 a barrel on September 18, down 0.71% on the week, while WTI finished at $100.30, up 0.25%. Northeast Asia LNG rose 7.60% on the week to $27.54 per million Btu, Dutch TTF eased 1.31% to 79.10 euros per megawatt-hour and US Henry Hub gained 2.86% to $2.91 per million Btu. Thermal coal moved the other way, with European ARA 6,000-kcal coal down 2.86% at $136.00 a tonne and Newcastle down 1.87% at $144.00.
The LNG spread is doing most of the work in the gas complex. Rotterdam LNG bunker prices fell $119 a metric ton on the week to $1,488, ending a six-week streak of gains, while Singapore surged $130 to $1,667 and flipped to a $179 premium over Rotterdam. Front-month Dutch TTF weakness and milder European weather drove the Atlantic pullback, while North Asian prices firmed on expectations that Qatari supply curtailments could persist. For energy buyers the practical effect is that delivered cost, not headline benchmark level, is now the binding constraint.