USDA Cuts Corn Yield and Stocks as Nitrogen Costs Climb on European Gas
USDA's September WASDE cut the 2026/27 corn yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and trimmed ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels, while urea has rebounded to roughly $453 a tonne as European gas and Hormuz disruption lift nitrogen costs.
The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released September 11, put the 2026/27 US corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from August, cutting production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion. Ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion and the season-average farm price was raised 30 cents to $4.80 a bushel. This was the first September WASDE to incorporate USDA's objective yield survey, in which field agents count and measure ears and pods directly rather than relying on farmer surveys. Corn conditions had slid through late August, with the crop rated 56% good to excellent as of the Crop Progress report dated September 8, the lowest reading for a September opener in three years.
Soybeans moved in the opposite direction. USDA nudged the yield estimate up to 52.8 bushels per acre from 52.7, pushing production to a record 4.535 billion bushels. Even so, ending stocks were cut to 310 million bushels from 320 million after exports were raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, and the season-average price was raised 60 cents to $12.00 a bushel. Wheat ending stocks held near 717 million bushels with the farm price raised 20 cents to $6.40. Globally, world corn ending stocks were cut to 272.1 million tonnes while world wheat stocks were raised to about 276.3 million tonnes on better crops in Australia and Canada.
Input costs are moving against growers at the same time. Global urea prices climbed to about $453 a tonne, with Profercy's Nitrogen Index up 6.3 points over the week ending September 8 and Brazilian CFR offers above $460, roughly $20 above the previous week's high. Active buying was also reported in Mexico, Argentina and Chile, with deals concluded in the high $400s CFR. The benchmark is now up about 18% over the past month and nearly 14% year on year, while US NOLA barge prices rose to $448 to $452 a short ton for September and Egypt's MOPCO concluded a prompt September export deal at $505 a tonne FOB destined for Europe.
Supply restrictions are reinforcing the cost floor. China's 2026 urea export quota of 3.3 million tonnes is down from roughly 5 million tonnes shipped in 2025, and roughly 12 vessels carrying about 630,000 tonnes of urea were reported stranded inside the Gulf with no non-Iranian urea carrier having cleared Hormuz. European natural gas climbed to levels last seen in December 2022, leaving nitrogen producers squeezed between expensive feedstock and cautious demand. India's next procurement tender, expected through RCF by late September, could push offers higher still if bidding comes in above current levels.