USDA Cuts Corn Yield to 178.5 bpa as Record Soybean Crop Meets Tight Nitrogen Supply
The September WASDE cut the 2026/27 US corn yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels, while lifting soybean production to a record 4.535 billion bushels and raising farm-price forecasts across all three major crops.
USDA's September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released on 11 September, lowered the 2026/27 US corn yield by 2.2 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre and cut production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion. It was the first September report to incorporate USDA's objective yield survey, with field agents counting ears and pods directly rather than relying on farmer reports. Corn ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion and the season-average farm price was raised 30 cents to $4.80 a bushel. Feed and residual use was cut 150 million bushels to 6 billion, while exports were held at 3.3 billion.
Soybeans moved the other way. Yield was nudged up 0.1 bushel to 52.8 bushels per acre, pushing production to a record 4.535 billion bushels, and the export forecast was raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion on stronger demand, much of it linked to Chinese purchasing. Ending stocks still fell to 310 million bushels and the season-average price was lifted 60 cents to $12.00. Wheat balances were left unchanged at 717 million bushels of ending stocks, with the farm price up 20 cents to $6.40. Globally, world corn ending stocks were trimmed to 272.10 million tonnes while world wheat stocks rose to about 276.3 million on better Australian and Canadian crops.
Input costs remain the pressure point for the next planting season. AHDB's 14 September update put UK ammonium nitrate at 461 pounds a tonne, imported ammonium nitrate and granular urea at 466 pounds, and nitrate sulphur at 472 pounds - up 14.6%, 15.4% and 18.1% respectively from February. Only 75% of nitrate sulphur orders in its merchant sample were being fulfilled within 28 days, with some deliveries stretching to six weeks, and the levy body warned that manufacturing, import, storage and haulage capacity could all become bottlenecks if orders bunch closer to spring.
Nitrogen pricing is tracking gas. UK natural gas futures rose sharply in the week to 11 September, and AHDB flagged higher gas costs and global trade instability as the main risks to nitrogen prices and availability. In China, domestic urea spot averaged about 1,812.5 yuan a tonne in mid-September, with Hualu Hengsheng quoting 1,785 yuan for mid-size granular urea after a 20 yuan cut. Upstream anthracite, liquid ammonia and LNG prices all stayed firm, keeping the cost floor elevated even as autumn fertiliser demand is released.