USDA Cuts Corn Yield to 178.5 bpa as Soybean Output Hits Record 4.535 Billion Bushels

USDA's September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates cut the US corn yield by 2.2 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre, the second consecutive monthly reduction, putting production at 15.8 billion bushels against 16.013 billion in August. Ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion because USDA also trimmed feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, and new-crop stocks-to-use dropped to 9.7% from 10.1%, the first sub-10% reading of the cycle. The season-average farm price was raised 30 cents to $4.80 a bushel. This was the first September WASDE to incorporate USDA's objective yield survey, in which field agents measure ears and pods directly rather than relying only on farmer reports, a shift that may reduce month-to-month comparability.

Soybeans moved the other way on production but tightened on demand. Yield rose a tenth to 52.8 bushels per acre and harvested area rose a tenth to 85.9 million acres, taking output to a record 4.535 billion bushels, some 43 million above the average analyst estimate. Even so, ending stocks fell 10 million bushels to 310 million after USDA raised exports 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion and held crush at a record 2.78 billion. The season-average soybean price was lifted 60 cents to $12.00 a bushel and meal $30 to $340 a short ton, while soyoil held at 70 cents a pound.

Wheat was left largely unchanged on supply and use, with ending stocks near 717 million bushels and the farm price up 20 cents to $6.40 a bushel; USDA raised world wheat ending stocks to about 276.3 million tonnes on better Australian and Canadian crops. World corn ending stocks fell 2.6 million tonnes to 272.10 million, almost exactly on the trade average, with production down 7.9 million tonnes to 1,290.95 million on cuts for India, Kenya and Russia. Cotton production dropped 3% to 13.2 million bales as yield fell to 776 pounds per harvested acre, and the upland farm price rose to 78 cents a pound.

The export assumptions carry the most price risk. USDA's higher soybean number leans on Chinese buying under a bilateral agreement, with state buyers taking roughly 1 million tonnes of US beans in a single week in early September against a 25 million tonne annual commitment running through 2028. The September report set export targets of 3.275 billion bushels for corn, 1.685 billion for soybeans and 775 million for wheat. Analysts said the report largely validated what the market had already priced, so December corn and November soybean futures both eased modestly on the Chicago Board of Trade after the release rather than extending the late-August rally.