China Methanol Slumps 13.6% in a Week as Coastal MTO Run Cuts End the Squeeze

Chinese methanol prices reversed violently in the week to 14 October, with the domestic benchmark sliding 13.6% to CNY 3,883.33 per tonne from the coastal peak reached only days earlier. Guide Chem's daily chemical price report put the single-session collapse at 12.77% to CNY 4,050 a tonne on 12 October, the largest one-day fall recorded in that series, with the industry benchmark itself down 14.65% from CNY 4,643.33 per tonne. The move erased almost the entire October rally: methanol had climbed 17.16% over the month to a high of CNY 4,847 a tonne on 9 October before turning, leaving the weekly change at minus 8.16% against a still-positive monthly gain.

The fall was a regional positioning flush rather than a national supply event. Coastal and river-port assessments led the decline, with Fujian down 14.29%, Jiangsu 13.29% and Ningbo 12.26%, while inland producing regions - Xinjiang, Ningxia, Yunnan-Guizhou and Sichuan-Chongqing - held completely unchanged and Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Hebei fell only marginally. Sellers cut offers to move cargo as downstream buyers refused to chase; at Taicang, spot methanol was quoted at CNY 4,075 a tonne on 13 October, down CNY 525, while Inner Mongolia north-line material fell CNY 390 to CNY 3,380 and CFR China was assessed at USD 538-542 a tonne, according to Everbright Futures.

The trigger was demand, not supply. High methanol prices pushed the methanol-to-olefins chain into deep losses, and several coastal MTO units - including Bohua and Lianhong - shut or planned to cut operating rates over the weekend, turning a previously expected negative feedback into reality. MTO accounts for roughly half of Chinese methanol demand, and its operating rate was already reported at 79.69%. Port inventories remained the bullish counterweight: Longzhong put total Chinese methanol port stocks at 305,100 tonnes as of 8 October, down 88,400 tonnes or 22.5% on the week and roughly 67% below the 920,900-tonne average since October 2023, with October imports seen at only 400,000-470,000 tonnes against normal months. On 13 October, SUNSIRS flagged methanol's 5-day, 10-day and 20-day average deviations all turning negative simultaneously - an explicit downtrend signal - while still placing the price in the upper-middle 60-80% band of its 60-day, three-month and one-year ranges.