LNG Benchmark Surges 14.7% in a Week as EU Storage Lags and Hormuz Flows Stay Shut
Market Pulse Scope's LNG marker climbed 14.7% over seven sessions to $29.93 per MMBtu as the Dutch TTF front month held near its highest since December 2022, EU storage sat at 74% against an 86% five-year average and Middle East volumes stayed about 80% below last year.
European gas is setting the global LNG price again. Market Pulse Scope's LNG series rose 14.70% over the seven-day window to $29.93 per MMBtu, tracking the Dutch TTF front month, which oilprice.com reported at EUR 86.03 per megawatt-hour on 15 October, the highest since December 2022. The move is a storage story as much as a supply one: Gas Infrastructure Europe data cited by oilprice.com put EU sites 74% full as of 14 October, roughly twelve points below the five-year seasonal average of about 86% at this stage of the injection season.
Supply is the other half. Oilprice.com reports LNG flows from the Middle East running about 80% lower than last year's volumes, with Qatari cargoes largely absent. ING's head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson said the market is increasingly accepting that Persian Gulf LNG could remain largely absent for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter, leaving Europe and Asia competing for the same spot molecules. Consultancy Timera Energy built its winter 2026/27 outlook on Hormuz staying closed through the fourth quarter with a gradual reopening in the first quarter of 2027, and warned that late-winter price upside becomes particularly acute if European stocks run low.
Asia is bidding alongside Europe rather than stepping aside. JOGMEC's weekly assessment put the Northeast Asian JKM marker for November delivery into the low USD 26s per MMBtu by 9 October, up from the high USD 24s at the start of the month, as renewed attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and lower temperatures in Europe lifted both benchmarks. Henry Hub moved from about $3.0 to $3.2 per MMBtu over the same week on heating demand and Hurricane Isaias outages, leaving the Atlantic arbitrage wide open and pulling US cargoes toward the highest bidder.
The pricing is now feeding through to fuel choice and to power bills. Oilprice.com reported South Korea leaning back on coal-fired generation for the coming winter because of the cost of spot LNG, and that the global gas crunch has made Europe's remaining coal plants profitable this year. Chinese buyers, by contrast, stocked up early and are expected to enter winter with comfortable inventories, which removes the world's largest importer from the spot market and concentrates the remaining competition between Europe and North Asia.