OPEC+ Freezes November Output at 31.01 Million b/d as G7 Stock Release Caps Diesel Rally
OPEC+ left its November production quota unchanged at 31.01 million barrels daily while the G7 prepared to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel, pressing middle-distillate margins down from record highs even as Aramco warned that global inventories remain dangerously thin.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep its crude production quota for November unchanged at 31.01 million barrels per day, in line with market expectations and after the group had already unwound its earlier production cuts. The decision came with Brent still holding above 100 dollars a barrel and WTI in the high-80s to around 91 dollars, supported by a security premium after a Houthi missile-and-drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery. Gulf members are already pumping below quota because of war-related disruption, so the unchanged target does not translate into additional barrels.
The G7 and its partners have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency diesel and crude stocks over the next four months, putting government inventories directly into the product side of the market. The announcement pressured middle-distillate refinery margins lower, with ICE gasoil having already fallen sharply from its October highs. Japan has said it does not plan additional releases from its national reserves beyond what the G7 framework covers, limiting how much physical volume actually reaches the barrel market.
On the supply side, tanker-tracking data from Kpler showed crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz climbing back above pre-war levels, which helped pull benchmarks lower early in the week. Persian Gulf loadings have recovered even as the chokepoint remains under active threat, and the East-West pipeline that provides a Red Sea bypass has repeatedly been targeted. The market is therefore pricing a widening gap between resilient physical flows and a persistent risk premium on prompt contracts.
Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser warned that the world has lost nearly three billion barrels of gross oil supply since the Iran war began, leaving inventories what he described as scarily thin. Retail pain remains acute in the United States, where AAA put the national average diesel price at 6.3207 dollars a gallon on 5 October, down only slightly from the all-time high of 6.53 dollars a gallon set in late September. Refinery outages in the Middle East and Russian refinery damage from Ukrainian drone attacks continue to cap how quickly product balances can normalise.