IEA Warns the Gas Crunch Runs Into 2027 as EU Storage Sits at a 2013 Low

The International Energy Agency said in its Global Gas Security Review 2026, published on November 3, that EU gas storage stood at roughly 75% of capacity at the end of October, below the bloc's own 80% minimum threshold and the lowest level for this point of the year since 2013. Germany is thinner still at just above 60%. The agency warned that a cold winter, continued disruption to LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz or a technical failure on the network would leave the bloc drawing down reserves it cannot easily replace, and that refilling through summer 2027 could extend market tightness well into next year.

The supply numbers explain why. LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by more than 60 billion cubic metres between March and October, and non-Persian Gulf production rose 14%, or more than 40 bcm, offsetting only about two-thirds of that loss. Global LNG output was down 6%, around 20 bcm, over the same period, and the IEA expects full-year 2026 LNG supply to fall 3%, close to 20 bcm, the steepest annual decline on record. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries to most customers to the end of December 2026, so the lost volumes are contracted rather than merely delayed.

Prices have already repriced to crisis levels. The Dutch TTF front-month contract broke above EUR 100 per megawatt hour in early November, the first time since December 2022, as Asia and Europe competed for the same flexible cargoes. Demand destruction is doing part of the balancing: the IEA expects global gas consumption to fall about 1.5% in 2026, nearly 65 bcm, with roughly 90% of the decline coming from power, energy and industrial users. The divergence with the US is stark, where Henry Hub fell 5.50% in the week to USD 2.8653 per MMBtu on the Market Pulse Scope series, leaving a transatlantic spread that will keep pulling cargoes away from Europe.