VLCC Newbuilding Prices Climb 8.4% to $138m as Tanker Ordering Nearly Quadruples
Tanker newbuilding economics have decoupled from the normal depreciation curve: 198 VLCCs have been ordered so far in 2026 against 89 for all of 2025, pushing the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to 37% and lifting newbuilding VLCC prices 8.4% to 138 million dollars while five-year-old ships now command a record 49% premium over new steel.
Veson Nautical's fourth-quarter outlook shows tanker contracting running at a pace the market has not seen in decades, with 198 VLCCs contracted year to date in 2026 against 89 for the whole of 2025. That lift pushes the VLCC orderbook-to-fleet ratio to 37%, and crude carriers now account for roughly 80% of all new tanker orders. Third-quarter VLCC spot earnings ran above 200,000 dollars a day while MR product tankers averaged around 40,000 dollars a day, as ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, Suez diversions around Bab el-Mandeb and long-haul Atlantic voyages tie up tonnage faster than volumes are lost.
Newbuilding pricing has followed earnings higher. Veson puts the benchmark newbuilding VLCC up 8.4% year to date at 138 million dollars, while five-year-old VLCC values are up 70% year to date at 196.3 million dollars. Across the bulker complex, secondhand values also firmed in the third quarter, with five-year-old Capesizes up 6.5%, Panamaxes 3.5%, Supramaxes 5.2% and Handy bulkers 2.9%, though Veson expects fleet supply growth of 3.8% a year to outpace demand growth of about 2.6% from 2027 onward.
The defining feature of the current cycle is the inversion between secondhand and newbuilding values. VesselsValue, a Veson solution, assesses a five-year-old VLCC at 207.6 million dollars against 139.6 million dollars for a newbuilding, a 49% premium that Rebecca Galanopoulos of Veson describes as the widest on record; the previous maximum was 21% in December 2007. A ten-year-old ship is assessed at 182 million dollars and a prompt resale at 226.4 million dollars, while a fifteen-year-old VLCC crossed above the newbuilding benchmark for the first time on 27 September at 140.1 million dollars.
The driver is delivery time rather than steel quality. A VLCC ordered today will generally not appear until 2029, whereas an existing hull can start earning immediately against Clarksons Research's estimate of global VLCC earnings near 600,000 dollars a day, about 17 times the ten-year average. Veson notes that five-year-old VLCC values have exceeded newbuild prices in only five periods this century; the four completed episodes averaged roughly six months, and the current inversion that began on 20 February is already longer than both 2004 episodes. Veson does not expect full restoration of normal Middle East oil flows before at least mid-2027.