European Gas Storage Hits Lowest Since 2011 as TTF Spikes and Qatari LNG Stays Shut
EU storage sits at 73% against an 86% five-year norm and TTF has jumped to its highest since early 2023, with Qatari volumes still blocked by the Hormuz closure.
European natural gas tightened sharply again this week. Storage sites were only 73% full at the start of the week, against more than 86% for the same point in each of the previous five years, and traders reported Dutch TTF front-month surging to its highest level since early 2023 with gas volumes in storage at their lowest since at least 2011. On 13 October, LNGInsights put TTF at EUR 86.80 per MWh, roughly USD 28.50 per MMBtu, up 2.81% on the day, with UK NBP at 211.08 pence per therm and the benchmark JKM-TTF spread at plus USD 1.34 per MMBtu.
The root cause remains supply rather than weather. Qatari LNG flows have stayed severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and unlike crude, LNG shipments through the chokepoint have not materially recovered because of the technical constraints on shuttle-shipping gas and carrying out ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. The strain is now visible in import bills as well as benchmarks: Pakistan said it will have to pay more than USD 1 billion to secure LNG for the winter as spot prices soar amid disruption to Qatari term supply, while Japan approved bills to compensate its oil importers for elevated shipping costs.
One potential release valve is weather. A record El Nino is expected to bring a warmer winter to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand and parts of China, which would free up cargoes for Europe, and current models also point to a slightly warmer European winter at least through January 2027 - though most models still see East Asian cold snaps in February. US gas offers no relief to the Atlantic balance: Henry Hub was indicated at USD 3.31 per MMBtu on 13 October, leaving the JKM-Henry Hub spread near USD 26.53 per MMBtu with Lower 48 dry production running at a record above 111 Bcf a day and working gas in storage above the five-year average.